Achieved Profits Basis Supplementary Information
for the year ended 31 December 2004
9 ASSUMPTIONS
The principal assumptions used in the calculation of the value of in-force business and the value of new business are set out below.
- The pre-tax investment and economic assumptions used for South African and United States businesses were as follows:
| |
At
31 December
2004 |
At
31 December
2003 |
| South Africa |
|
|
| Fixed interest return |
8.3% |
9.4% |
| Cash return |
7.0% |
- |
| Equity return |
10.3% |
11.4% |
| Property return |
9.3% |
10.4% |
| Inflation |
5.3% |
6.4% |
| Risk discount rate |
10.8% |
11.9% |
| |
|
|
| United States |
|
|
| Treasury yield |
4.3% |
4.3% |
| Inflation |
3.0% |
3.0% |
| New money yield assumed |
5.1% |
6.0% |
| Net portfolio earned rate |
5.9% |
6.4% |
| Risk discount rate |
8.3% |
8.3% |
- For the other operations, appropriate investment and economic assumptions were chosen on bases consistent with those adopted in South Africa.
Where applicable, rates of future bonuses have been set at levels consistent with the investment return assumptions. Projected company taxation is
based on the current tax basis that applies in each country.
- For the South African business, full allowance has been made for STC that may be payable in South Africa. Account has been taken of the impact
of CGT in South Africa. It has been assumed that 10% of the equity portfolio (excluding group subsidiaries) will be traded each year. For the United
States business full allowance has been made for existing tax attributes of the companies, including the use of existing carry forwards and preferred tax
credit investments. Achieved profits results are initially calculated on an after tax basis and are then grossed up to the pre-tax level for presentation in
the profit and loss account and the segmental analysis of results. The tax rates used were the effective corporation tax rates of 37.8% for South Africa (2003: 37.8%), 30% for the United States (2003: 25%) and 0% for the United Kingdom and the Rest of World (2003: 0%) except for the investment return on South African capital, for which the attributed tax was derived from the primary accounts.
- The assumed future mortality, morbidity and voluntary discontinuance rates have been based as far as possible on analyses of recent operating experience. Allowance has been made where appropriate for the effect of expected AIDS-related claims.
- The management expenses attributable to life assurance business have been analysed between expenses relating to the acquisition of new business and the maintenance of business in-force. The future expenses attributable to life assurance business do not include Group holding company expenses.
- No material allowance has been made for future development costs.
- Future investment expenses are based on the current scales of fees payable by the life assurance companies to the asset management subsidiaries.
To the extent that these fees include profit margins for the asset management subsidiaries, these margins have not been included in the value of
in-force business or the value of new business.
- The effect of increases in premiums over the period for policies in-force has been included in the value of in-force business only where such increases
are associated with indexation arrangements. Other increases in premiums of existing policies are included in the value of new business.
- New schemes written on which recurring single premiums are expected to be received on a regular basis are treated as new business. The annualised
premium is recognised as recurring premium new business at inception of the scheme and is determined by annualising the actual premiums received
during the year in question. Subsequent recurring single premiums received in future years are not treated as new business, as these have already
been provided for in calculating the value of in-force business.
- The sensitivity of the value of in-force and value of new business to changes in key assumptions are set out in section 10.
The principal exchange rates used to translate the operating results of key foreign business segments to Sterling are:
| |
|
Rand |
|
|
US$ |
| |
2004 |
2003 |
|
2004 |
2003 |
| Profit and loss account (average rate for the year) |
11.7986 |
12.3487 |
|
1.8327 |
1.6354 |
| Balance sheet (closing rate at 31 December) |
10.8482 |
11.9367 |
|
1.9158 |
1.7833 |